Usually you learn by trial and error when it comes to knowing how much stock to take to a fair. This article shares some interesting insights so that you can work on an averaged out algorithm. They highlight 4 different methods for working it out. This is my favorite.
Method 1: If you know the attendance numbers, you can figure that about 3% of the attendees will make a purchase, although in this economy and at shows with multiple soapmakers, this percentage may be high for some. If this is your first time, you may not know what your average sale is, but for many soapmakers the average is around 2-3 bars or $10-20 worth of product at a craft show. If the attendance is 7,000, then you would expect 210 people to make a purchase of around 2-3 bars, requiring you to bring 420-630 bars of soap. (Source)
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